Ukraine’s counteroffensive will face some challenges: Analyst says

Ukrainian counteroffensive

Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer in military strategy and law at the University of Portsmouth, said that in the coming weeks and months, Ukraine’s counteroffensive will experience a series of setbacks and successes – but it is too soon to predict a decisive result.

“The general rule – and there are huge exceptions to this – is that you need a three to one numerical preponderance,” Ledwidge told Al Jazeera, speaking from Oxford.

“The Ukrainians do not have that.  What they do have and can assemble is local superiority, equipment, and the human element, which is morale and leadership and training, which is certainly more developed on the Ukrainian side than the Russian one.”

“The difficulty is the length of the lines and the degree to which they can penetrate into Russian lines before coming under Russian air umbrella, which means they will be vulnerable to Russian air attacks,” he added.

‘Enough weapons for its counteroffensive’

Ukraine has enough weapons for its counteroffensive against Russia, and the operation will give the country the victory it needs to join NATO, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

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Membership of the military alliance would “probably” only be possible for Ukraine after the end of active hostilities, Kuleba said in an interview in Kyiv.

He did not say whether the counteroffensive had started when asked.

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