After setting a target to have its aircraft certified by the end of 2024, Archer Aviation Inc. said that it plans to build roughly 250 battery-electric air taxis in 2025 and scale up production in the following years.
“In our first year, we will build 250 aircraft, our second year will build 500 aircraft, our third year will build 650 aircraft and then we scale it up to around 2,000 aircraft per year,” CEO Adam Goldstein said.
Although the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently developing certification requirements for this cutting-edge aircraft, Archer plans to certify their pilot-plus-four-passenger aircraft, “Midnight,” by the end of 2024.
“In terms of aircraft production, we have estimated in our Archer model ~20 units in 2025,” JPM analyst Bill Peterson said.
“We are not negative on the space, but think it will take a little longer to play out with the ramp not as steep as these companies had projected in their SPAC decks from over a year ago,” he added.
This year, shares of Archer have decreased 54%.
Once certified, the California-based startup’s electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft will face stiff competition in a market where dozens of other manufacturers are seeking to transform urban transportation, including Joby Aviation Inc. and Vertical Aerospace Ltd.
The emerging industry, which is supported by titans of industry like Toyota Motor Corp. and Delta Air Lines, still has a long way to go in terms of certification, building an effective air traffic control system, and advances in battery technology, among other things.
Concerns about certification delays were raised when the FAA announced in May that it was changing its regulatory approach for certifying eVTOLs by classifying them as powered-lift aircraft rather than small airplanes.
According to Goldstein, the market may see a yearly demand for 1,000 eVTOL aircraft.